PokéBeach's Sep 27 exclusive is still the story this morning, and it is still not an announcement. The live page says U.S. Happy Meals will carry Pokémon cards November 5 through December 9, with 15 cards, and that past runs were reprints in a 4-card pack (one holo, three non-holos) on confetti holofoil, "usually" six holos. Preliminary, by its own note. Vice and Nintendo Wire wrote "usually" as this year's six-holo set. Attractions Magazine is plainer: McDonald's and The Pokémon Company have not announced it. Neither has the 30th Celebration showcase.

There is no checklist. An English version of the Japan Pikachu with the burger art is PokéBeach's "slim possibility" and Nintendo Wire's hope. That is speculation.

What you can price already exists. Mew ex #158 Market is $90.40 (low $86.99), with Sep 28–29 solds around $90–$100, including $91.99 on TCGplayer today. The PSA 10 print is an estimate with zero graded sales. Ignore it. The 2022 McDonald's Pikachu holo #7 is an ungraded $4.83. Raw solds this month are mostly $2–$8.

Today, Tue Sep 29: Reality Fracture is live on MTG Arena. Radiance gallery updates at 5pm PT.

Wed Sep 30: Radiance merch-draw sign-up closes. Chicago Edgerunner Open Wave 1 at 7pm ET.

Fri Oct 2: Reality Fracture tabletop release. Arena Direct runs through Oct 11, and seven wins is a Collector box. 30th Celebration wave 2: Booster Bundle ($26.94) and Mini Tins ($9.99).

Mon Oct 5: Radiance Ultimate Rare face, about 0.025% of packs.

Mon Oct 12: Mihawk ban, alt arts included.

Fri Oct 16 / Fri Oct 23: Radiance Pre-Rift, then the wide release.

Thu Nov 5 through Wed Dec 9: The reported Happy Meal window. Unconfirmed.

Arena opened. Street did not. Play Market is $169.67 and Collector Market is $549.39. Each eased a dollar or two from 5:13am CT. The Collector-box prize starts Friday, not today.

Radiance is still a face tax. $242.57 market versus $129.97 at Game Nerdz. The chase card stays unnamed until Monday.

Johnny's Sell tag is errata. WeirdCo says that Beta Iconic Johnny Silverhand cannot be sold for an Eddie. Chicago Wave 1 tickets go on sale Wednesday at 7pm ET.

Naruto on TCGplayer is promos only. Buyer access opened Monday for event cards. No sealed product, and no market print. Four-figure eBay talk stays off the table until a sold is verified.

That 2022 confetti Pikachu is still a few dollars raw. Exclusive art would change the math, and PokéBeach still says past cards "have always been reprints."

Friday is the ask you can defend. Arena names winners. It does not open cases. Paying market on Play near $170 or Collector near $549 before street is a convenience tax. Mihawk is the same rule. Market is $28.66, and the last ungraded solds are still the Sep 24 and Sep 25 prints. The Oct 12 ban is not a buy.

Action: Wait on Happy Meal packs, checklists, and any English Japan Pikachu until McDonald's or The Pokémon Company posts it. Draft Reality Fracture Play at the shop, and wait on online Play and Collector Displays into Friday. Wait on Radiance above the ~$130 store ask until Monday's Ultimate Rare face, and keep any floor allocation you already hold. Wait on the Mihawk alt art until fresh ungraded solds print.

Tomorrow: the Radiance merch-draw sign-up closes, the gallery updates at 5pm PT, and we find out whether anyone official confirms the Happy Meal.